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At the end of last year, the ink-jet forecast of the Southeast Asian market
2018-06-22 View: 3824
Many of the partners still remember that inkstone released its top ten forecasts for the South East Asian market in 2018 last December. Now that half of 2018 is over, let's take a look at the ten major market predictions. What is the situation now?
In order to make it easier for people to read it, the following is the correct prediction for green, red for prediction error, and blue for observation.
1. The cash loan bubble bursts
As early as February, we have heard many investors talk about the fact that the micro cash market in the Indonesian market is not as good as one would imagine. Many Chinese players have left the market, or have been frozen because they violated local regulations during operations.
In fact, Moteng believes that the potential of this market still exists (it can be said that it has great potential). One obvious sign is that after this market was divided up by so many players, the cost of acquiring customers did not increase much. This is enough to make us understand the relationship between supply and demand in the market.
For players in the market, it is more difficult to control risk through data modeling and credit rating. This may be the main reason why some players will be eliminated in the next 6-12 months.
2. Uber should throw the towel and surrender
Bingo!
3. In the area of e-commerce and payments, the competition between Chinese giants (and their local partners) will continue
When everyone had just taken a sigh of relief from the e-commerce wars, following Alibaba and Lazada, Tencent, SEA and Shopee, Jingdong reignited the war and announced that it would settle in Thailand in August this year.
For the e-commerce market in Southeast Asia, people still seem to be looking for Facebook and Amazon, but according to Inkton's judgment, these two giant players will not enter the stadium in the short term. Although Carousell seems to rely on the two golden trees of Singapore and Japan behind him, the distance is huge.
In addition to e-commerce, Chinese companies still dominate the payment sector. By launching his own e-wallet, Lazada is likely to turn himself into a Fintech player with the most users in Southeast Asia (all Lazada users have this wallet). Other well-known Fintech APPs in the market, such as Airpay and BluePay, are also Chinese companies.
At least for now, Chinese companies still dominate the e-commerce and electronic payment markets in Southeast Asia.
4. Intensified cross-border e-commerce competition in China
Although there is no fierce competition from Momenton's predictions, vaguely the smell of smoke can already be smelled. Only AliExpress and JollyChic are China's cross-border e-commerce players in the Top 15 Online APP Rankings on the Google Play App Store in Indonesia.
In Thailand, only SheIn squeezed into the top ten.
A market veteran told Inkton that many players are still struggling between customs, third party cash on delivery and core elements - how to hire the right local team. Ezbuy once had a strong local team. Unfortunately, poor understanding of the culture, lack of trust, and lack of management led to the departure of large numbers of people.
5. Go-Pay will quickly become Indonesia's preferred payment method
Indonesia's local regulator seems to be holding back on GoPay, so the release of some features has been delayed. Despite this, Grab still needs several years to catch up with GoPay.
The promotion of OVO by the Lippo Group looks very interesting. It is possible that Indonesia's payment market will never be as unified as China's payment market.
6. Vietnam and the Philippines will receive more attention
This is indeed happening. Especially in the past three months, Inkton saw a large number of investors going to Vietnam and the Philippines. But wait until the investors' money is actually put into this market, Moteng feels it will take at least a few months before it can be realized.
7. Investors are still struggling to discover the next billion-dollar unicorn
This is still the case. This is why some sub-prime companies can get a lot of round B and round C investments. However, although this area has attracted so many investors and funds, there are not so many excellent companies worth investing in.
In other words, we believe in the bright future of Southeast Asia. The consumption escalation in this market is happening rapidly, and there are more than 600 million people have stable economic growth. Therefore, the emergence of unicorns is only a matter of time, and Moteng believes that this day will soon come.
8. Corporate innovation will be bolder and more real
Although 2018 has not yet seen the success of any corporate innovation, Momentum is still looking forward to corporate innovation in Southeast Asia.
As more companies begin to realize that they are more likely to succeed through acquisitions or mergers, the company's innovation trend will accelerate. These companies either set up a buyout fund or set up a separate business and then work with other partners that have strong synergies. For example, Sinha has launched a $25 million Series A investment fund.
In order to quickly seize this opportunity, Grab also established Grab Ventures. Singapore's accelerator JFDI has transformed its business model from accelerating startups to accelerating companies. Capgemini also recently established an innovation laboratory.
9. Bitcoin will break through the $100,000 mark and blockchain will become the mainstream application
Momentum makes this prediction based on the assumption that Bitcoin will soon be accepted as an asset class by global investors. However, this assumption has not been realized, and Bitcoin has been in a sluggish state since February.
However, it should be noted that before February, ICO's companies successfully avoided the "death zone" that must deliver some products (as defined in the roadmap section of the white paper). On the other hand, the blockchain is gradually entering the mainstream, and some practical applications related to it have also begun to build.
10. In-depth technology still has a long way to go
In fact, government-funded deep technology accelerators are still trying to dig out talent from some of the local deep technology companies. And these local in-depth technology companies have also announced their talent crisis. You will also see those so-called deep technology companies that have actually accelerated from deep technology. The actual technology is not as deep as advertised.
On the other hand, some giant players have also joined the battle for talent, especially in Singapore. Inkeng believes that the days will not be better for those independent deep-tech companies in Southeast Asia, especially artificial intelligence companies.
summary
In the ten major predictions made by South Korea in the 2018 Southeast Asian market at the end of last year, Inkjet hit six and the error was 0.5. The remaining part remains to be seen. After 2018, just over half of the time, Momentum is still confident that it can successfully grasp the trend of the market.
In order to make it easier for people to read it, the following is the correct prediction for green, red for prediction error, and blue for observation.
1. The cash loan bubble bursts
As early as February, we have heard many investors talk about the fact that the micro cash market in the Indonesian market is not as good as one would imagine. Many Chinese players have left the market, or have been frozen because they violated local regulations during operations.
In fact, Moteng believes that the potential of this market still exists (it can be said that it has great potential). One obvious sign is that after this market was divided up by so many players, the cost of acquiring customers did not increase much. This is enough to make us understand the relationship between supply and demand in the market.
For players in the market, it is more difficult to control risk through data modeling and credit rating. This may be the main reason why some players will be eliminated in the next 6-12 months.
2. Uber should throw the towel and surrender
Bingo!
3. In the area of e-commerce and payments, the competition between Chinese giants (and their local partners) will continue
When everyone had just taken a sigh of relief from the e-commerce wars, following Alibaba and Lazada, Tencent, SEA and Shopee, Jingdong reignited the war and announced that it would settle in Thailand in August this year.
For the e-commerce market in Southeast Asia, people still seem to be looking for Facebook and Amazon, but according to Inkton's judgment, these two giant players will not enter the stadium in the short term. Although Carousell seems to rely on the two golden trees of Singapore and Japan behind him, the distance is huge.
In addition to e-commerce, Chinese companies still dominate the payment sector. By launching his own e-wallet, Lazada is likely to turn himself into a Fintech player with the most users in Southeast Asia (all Lazada users have this wallet). Other well-known Fintech APPs in the market, such as Airpay and BluePay, are also Chinese companies.
At least for now, Chinese companies still dominate the e-commerce and electronic payment markets in Southeast Asia.
4. Intensified cross-border e-commerce competition in China
Although there is no fierce competition from Momenton's predictions, vaguely the smell of smoke can already be smelled. Only AliExpress and JollyChic are China's cross-border e-commerce players in the Top 15 Online APP Rankings on the Google Play App Store in Indonesia.
In Thailand, only SheIn squeezed into the top ten.
A market veteran told Inkton that many players are still struggling between customs, third party cash on delivery and core elements - how to hire the right local team. Ezbuy once had a strong local team. Unfortunately, poor understanding of the culture, lack of trust, and lack of management led to the departure of large numbers of people.
5. Go-Pay will quickly become Indonesia's preferred payment method
Indonesia's local regulator seems to be holding back on GoPay, so the release of some features has been delayed. Despite this, Grab still needs several years to catch up with GoPay.
The promotion of OVO by the Lippo Group looks very interesting. It is possible that Indonesia's payment market will never be as unified as China's payment market.
6. Vietnam and the Philippines will receive more attention
This is indeed happening. Especially in the past three months, Inkton saw a large number of investors going to Vietnam and the Philippines. But wait until the investors' money is actually put into this market, Moteng feels it will take at least a few months before it can be realized.
7. Investors are still struggling to discover the next billion-dollar unicorn
This is still the case. This is why some sub-prime companies can get a lot of round B and round C investments. However, although this area has attracted so many investors and funds, there are not so many excellent companies worth investing in.
In other words, we believe in the bright future of Southeast Asia. The consumption escalation in this market is happening rapidly, and there are more than 600 million people have stable economic growth. Therefore, the emergence of unicorns is only a matter of time, and Moteng believes that this day will soon come.
8. Corporate innovation will be bolder and more real
Although 2018 has not yet seen the success of any corporate innovation, Momentum is still looking forward to corporate innovation in Southeast Asia.
As more companies begin to realize that they are more likely to succeed through acquisitions or mergers, the company's innovation trend will accelerate. These companies either set up a buyout fund or set up a separate business and then work with other partners that have strong synergies. For example, Sinha has launched a $25 million Series A investment fund.
In order to quickly seize this opportunity, Grab also established Grab Ventures. Singapore's accelerator JFDI has transformed its business model from accelerating startups to accelerating companies. Capgemini also recently established an innovation laboratory.
9. Bitcoin will break through the $100,000 mark and blockchain will become the mainstream application
Momentum makes this prediction based on the assumption that Bitcoin will soon be accepted as an asset class by global investors. However, this assumption has not been realized, and Bitcoin has been in a sluggish state since February.
However, it should be noted that before February, ICO's companies successfully avoided the "death zone" that must deliver some products (as defined in the roadmap section of the white paper). On the other hand, the blockchain is gradually entering the mainstream, and some practical applications related to it have also begun to build.
10. In-depth technology still has a long way to go
In fact, government-funded deep technology accelerators are still trying to dig out talent from some of the local deep technology companies. And these local in-depth technology companies have also announced their talent crisis. You will also see those so-called deep technology companies that have actually accelerated from deep technology. The actual technology is not as deep as advertised.
On the other hand, some giant players have also joined the battle for talent, especially in Singapore. Inkeng believes that the days will not be better for those independent deep-tech companies in Southeast Asia, especially artificial intelligence companies.
summary
In the ten major predictions made by South Korea in the 2018 Southeast Asian market at the end of last year, Inkjet hit six and the error was 0.5. The remaining part remains to be seen. After 2018, just over half of the time, Momentum is still confident that it can successfully grasp the trend of the market.